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Episode recorded August 16, 2022
Episode released on February 23, 2023
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Chris Funk is the Director of Climate Hazards Center at UC Santa Barbara. In 2021 Chris published a book, Drought, Flood, Fire: How Climate Change Contributes to Recent Catastrophes - 2015 – 2019. Chris is a lead scientist with the Famine Early Warning System Network.
Highlights | Transcript
- The Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) was created in 1984 by USAID in response to the famine in Ethiopia in 1984 where more than 1 million people died.
- East Africa continually subjected to droughts and floods:
- 2019 spring, drought; fall, flooding, +Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), locust infestation;
- 2020: summer/fall 2020 La Nina, droughts eastern Horn of Africa (Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia), ~ 9 million livestock died. SON drought.
- 2021: MAM drought; SON drought
- 2022: MAM drought; SON drought
- 2023: MAM projected drought based on La Nina in SON 2022 (75% probability)
- E Horn of Africa (SE Ethiopia, N Kenya and Somalia) facing 5th consecutive drought in SON 2022 related to negative phases of IOD and La Nina conditions (W Pacific Warm Pool).
- Sixth consecutive drought projected for spring 2023.
- Forecast lead times have extended significantly since 2011 when a quarter of a million people died in Somalia and lead times are up to 6 months in recent times.
- Improved forecasting skill provides early warning and opportunities for agencies to collaborate and avoid famine (14 agencies issued joint statement).
- USAID $1.3 Billion E Africa; World Bank $2.3 Billion in E and S Africa
- Food insecurity linked to climate extremes, water insecurity, conflicts
- Climate change amplifies droughts in E Africa
- Climate change effects: increasing T, increasing moisture holding capacity of atmosphere, increasing climate extremes (Book)
- Adapting to climate extremes, storing water, irrigation
- Climatically stable regions of Africa: W Kenya, N Ethiopia, Tanzania, Uganda
- Gates Foundation, increased crop productivity Ethiopia
- Past forecasts focused on precipitation and precipitation database (CHIRPS), future consider temperature (CHIRTS)
